Dordrecht 1-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
M-Scores Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 23 August 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 10W 0D 0L at M-Scores Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Dordrecht's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Dordrecht 4W, Jong PSV U21 2W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 45% versus Jong PSV U21 68%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 60% | Jong PSV U21 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.87 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.171 / defence 0.765 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.017 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.220. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Dordrecht games / 40 Jong PSV U21 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 19%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dordrecht 30% | Jong PSV U21 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Dordrecht 1.87 / Jong PSV U21 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.171 / def 0.765 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.017 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Jong PSV U21 xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Dordrecht 1 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 59% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Record (8 meetings): Dordrecht 4W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.02x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.48
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.82
0.95
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
34.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.95 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 22W 8D 10L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 10W 6D 24L from 40 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 2.40 PPG from 20 outings (14W 6D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Dordrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 3D 12L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.50 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 68%.
Defensively: Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 22W 8D 10L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 6D 24L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.40 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 1-4 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 55%, Jong PSV U21 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dordrecht and 55% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 45% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dordrecht's matches and 55% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Dordrecht 1-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.87 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.95 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.17 / defence 0.77 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Jong PSV U21 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.