De Graafschap 2-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Ajax make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion De Vijverberg.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in De Graafschap's favour (1.90 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: De Graafschap 2W, Jong Ajax 4W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 61% versus Jong Ajax 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 65% | Jong Ajax 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.32 xG and Jong Ajax 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.202 / defence 0.759 | Jong Ajax attack 0.761 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.241. De Graafschap's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 De Graafschap games / 72 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 73% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 9%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Jong Ajax 11.11. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Jong Ajax lead the H2H ledger, but De Graafschap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 40% | Jong Ajax 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 73% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 47% | xG De Graafschap 2.32 / Jong Ajax 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.202 / def 0.759 | Jong Ajax attack 0.761 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Jong Ajax xG
47%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 73% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 4W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.20x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.76x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.65
9%
10.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.03
0.72
Jong Ajax xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.65
18%
Draw
10.65
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
10%
10.14
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
1%
107.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.72 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 72 games, going 34W 14D 24L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.00 PPG from 72 outings (18W 18D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 23W 5D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.64 points per game from 36 outings (5W 8D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.25 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 34W 14D 24L in their last 72 games (1.61 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 18W 18D 36L in their last 72 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Ajax away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.06 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 58%, Jong Ajax 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for De Graafschap and 72% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of De Graafschap's games and 67% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of De Graafschap's matches and 72% of Jong Ajax's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Ajax 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.32 xG and Jong Ajax 0.72 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.20 / defence 0.76 against Jong Ajax attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 73% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 9%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 65%, Jong Ajax 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.