De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 0.80 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for De Graafschap, 3 for FC Eindhoven and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and FC Eindhoven 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | FC Eindhoven 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.09 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / defence 1.145 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.787 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 49 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 4.17. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG De Graafschap 2.09 / FC Eindhoven 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / def 1.145 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.787 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.32
FC Eindhoven xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 55% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.76
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.40
1.32
FC Eindhoven xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
12%
8.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
3%
33.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.32 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 20W 12D 17L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 17W 7D 25L from 49 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.47 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 3D 15L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.35 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 7D 25L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Eindhoven away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.54 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 75%, FC Eindhoven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 62% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of De Graafschap's games and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 62% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.