De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 0.70 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours De Graafschap, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Den Bosch — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Den Bosch 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 70% | Den Bosch 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Den Bosch 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.881 / defence 1.336 | Den Bosch attack 0.916 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.997 / away 1.525. Data: 45 De Graafschap games / 45 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 38%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | Den Bosch 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG De Graafschap 1.92 / Den Bosch 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.881 / def 1.336 | Den Bosch attack 0.916 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.997 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Den Bosch xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 September 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
De Graafschap 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 40% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.88x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.92x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
40%
2.48
21%
4.69
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.78
1.87
Den Bosch xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
6%
16.01
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.87 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 19W 11D 17L from 47 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 21L across 47 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.23 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 10W 4D 9L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 3D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.68 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 77%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Den Bosch away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 27 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
3
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Den Bosch have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for De Graafschap, 74% for Den Bosch — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for De Graafschap and 78% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of De Graafschap's games and 74% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of De Graafschap's matches and 78% of Den Bosch's.
Do De Graafschap and Den Bosch tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 1-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Den Bosch 1.87 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.88 / defence 1.34 against Den Bosch attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 40% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 38%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 70%, Den Bosch 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 76%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.45 PPG, Den Bosch 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.