Venezia 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Bari at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bari haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bari away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Venezia at 1.00 PPG versus Bari's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Venezia have won 2, Bari 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bari in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 50% versus Bari 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Venezia 42% | Bari 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.15 xG and Bari 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Bari attack 0.936 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.129. Data: 0 Venezia games / 38 Bari games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 30% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 30% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 30% | Bari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Venezia 1.15 / Bari 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Bari attack 0.936 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Bari (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bari xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Bari kick off?
Venezia vs Bari kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Bari?
Venezia 2 - 1 Bari.
Where is Venezia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Bari part of?
Venezia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 33% chance of winning, Bari a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Venezia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bari?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 0 | Bari 2W.
What form are Venezia and Bari in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Venezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bari's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.29
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.36
1.22
Bari xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Venezia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Venezia and 1.22 for Bari, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 5W 14D 19L from 38 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. Venezia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 10W 18D 10L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. Bari haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 3W 9D 7L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.08 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Pre-Season
Bari
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Bari in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 5W 14D 19L in their last 38 games (0.76 PPG), while Bari have gone 10W 18D 10L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Bari away?
Venezia's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.05 PPG; Bari away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Venezia or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Bari in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Venezia go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 4, Bari have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bari 0-3 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Bari?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 42%, Bari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Venezia and 32% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Bari in 37%; Venezia have failed to score in 47% of games; Bari in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Venezia's recent matches and 47% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Venezia's recent games and 32% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Bari tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Bari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Bari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.15 xG and Bari 1.22 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bari attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 33% | Draw 30% | Bari 36%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 42%, Bari 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.