Sudtirol vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Sudtirol's 1.10 PPG return is 0.77 points per game ahead of Benevento's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 33% versus Benevento 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 0% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.42 xG and Benevento 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.924 / defence 0.779 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sudtirol games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 56% | Draw 27% | Benevento 16%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Benevento 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sudtirol (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Benevento's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Benevento 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 56% | Draw 27% | Benevento 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 35% | xG Sudtirol 1.42 / Benevento 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.924 / def 0.779 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Benevento xG
35%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Benevento kick off?
Sudtirol vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Benevento part of?
Sudtirol vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 56% chance of winning, Benevento a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sudtirol and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 2 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Benevento in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.70x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.68
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.05
0.63
Benevento xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
4%
25.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.63 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 67%.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Benevento in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Sudtirol or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Benevento in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
2
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Benevento?
From 3 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Benevento have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Benevento 1-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Benevento?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 33%, Benevento 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sudtirol and 33% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 67% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sudtirol's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Benevento tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.