Sudtirol vs Avellino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Avellino make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Avellino have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.50 for Avellino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 2–3 with Avellino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 51% versus Avellino 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 35% | Avellino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.04 xG and Avellino 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.806 / defence 0.778 | Avellino attack 0.896 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Sudtirol games / 48 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 36% | Avellino 27%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Avellino 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Avellino 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 36% | Avellino 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Sudtirol 1.04 / Avellino 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.806 / def 0.778 | Avellino attack 0.896 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Avellino xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Avellino kick off?
Sudtirol vs Avellino is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Avellino part of?
Sudtirol vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 37% chance of winning, Avellino a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sudtirol and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Avellino?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 0 | Avellino 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Avellino in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Avellino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.81) and Avellino's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.90x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
37%
2.70
36%
2.80
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.90
0.86
Avellino xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.86 for Avellino, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 11W 23D 15L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 19L across 49 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.31 for Avellino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 6W 12D 6L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Avellino's away record stands at 5W 7D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Avellino in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 11W 23D 15L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Avellino have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Avellino away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.25 PPG; Avellino away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
0
Draws
2
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Avellino?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Avellino have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Avellino last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Avellino 3-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Avellino?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 50%, Avellino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Sudtirol and 38% for Avellino.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Avellino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Avellino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 50% of Avellino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sudtirol's recent games and 38% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Avellino tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Avellino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.