Pisa 4-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Palermo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.40 PPG, Palermo 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Pisa's games and 70% of Palermo's (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Pisa, 1 for Palermo and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Pisa 2–3 Palermo — a Palermo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 59% versus Palermo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 46% | Palermo 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pisa surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Palermo surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.017 / defence 1.024 | Palermo attack 1.127 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.210. Data: built from Pisa's last 68 games and Palermo's last 68.
Result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 27% | Palermo 34%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.56 | Draw 3.72 | Palermo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 60% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 27% | Palermo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Pisa 1.51 / Palermo 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.017 / def 1.024 | Palermo attack 1.127 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Pisa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Palermo xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Palermo kick off?
Pisa vs Palermo kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Pisa 4 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Pisa vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Palermo part of?
Pisa vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 39% chance of winning, Palermo a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pisa and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 68 games and Palermo's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.72
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.90
1.40
Palermo xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Pisa and 1.40 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 24D 24L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 25W 23D 20L from 68 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.24 PPG, Palermo on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 34 home games (11W 11D 12L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 9W 14D 11L from their last 34 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.47 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
Pisa (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Pisa vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Palermo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 20W 24D 24L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while Palermo have gone 25W 23D 20L in their last 68 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Palermo away?
Pisa's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.29 PPG; Palermo away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Pisa or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Palermo in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Pisa
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 3, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: Pisa 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Palermo?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 65%, Palermo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pisa) and 47% (Palermo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Palermo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Pisa's games and 65% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Pisa's recent games and 47% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Pisa's recent matches and 79% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Palermo 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Palermo 4-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.40 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Palermo attack 1.13 / defence 1.18, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 39% | Draw 27% | Palermo 34%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 46%, Palermo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.24 PPG, Palermo 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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