Cremonese 0-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Feralpisalo encounter.

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Analysis

Feralpisalo make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Cremonese (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Cremonese at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Feralpisalo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Feralpisalo's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Feralpisalo's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Feralpisalo and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Cremonese 0–1 Feralpisalo — a Feralpisalo win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Feralpisalo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Feralpisalo 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.53 xG and Feralpisalo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.022 / defence 0.852 | Feralpisalo attack 0.951 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.236. Data: built from Cremonese's last 30 games and Feralpisalo's last 30.

Result probabilities: Cremonese 48% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 24%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.07 | Draw 3.56 | Feralpisalo 4.25. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cremonese 30% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 away games).

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