Pisa 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 1W 3D 6L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Cremonese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pisa, 0 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 3–0 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 58% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.10 xG and Cremonese 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.024 / defence 1.124 | Cremonese attack 1.336 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.184. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Pisa games / 14 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 21% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 51%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 1.96. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 100% | Cremonese 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 21% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Pisa 1.10 / Cremonese 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.024 / def 1.124 | Cremonese attack 1.336 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Cremonese xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cremonese kick off?
Pisa vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Pisa 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Pisa vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cremonese part of?
Pisa vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 21% chance of winning, Cremonese a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pisa and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
21%
4.70
27%
3.65
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.87
1.78
Cremonese xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
27.80
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pisa and 1.78 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 15W 19D 18L from 52 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 24L across 52 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.23 PPG, Cremonese on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 8W 7D 10L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 6W 9D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.10 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 19D 18L in their last 52 games (1.23 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 12W 16D 24L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cremonese away?
Pisa's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.24 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cremonese in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cremonese?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 68%, Cremonese at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pisa) and 60% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Pisa's games and 68% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Pisa's matches and 60% of Cremonese's.
Do Pisa and Cremonese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.10 xG and Cremonese 1.78 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Cremonese attack 1.34 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 21% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 51%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.23 PPG, Cremonese 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.