Cremonese 1-0 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cremonese welcome Lecco to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season.
Lecco — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecco's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Cremonese have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lecco trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Lecco 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 67% | Lecco 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.14 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.883 / defence 1.006 | Lecco attack 0.863 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.190. Data: 13 Cremonese games / 12 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Lecco 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 40% | Lecco 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 1.14 / Lecco 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.883 / def 1.006 | Lecco attack 0.863 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lecco xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Lecco kick off?
Cremonese vs Lecco kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Lecco?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Lecco.
Where is Cremonese vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Lecco part of?
Cremonese vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 37% chance of winning, Lecco a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lecco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Lecco in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Lecco (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.13
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.17
1.03
Lecco xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.03 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Lecco — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.08 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Lecco in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Lecco have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Lecco away?
Lecco's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.83 PPG; Lecco away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cremonese
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Lecco 0-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Lecco?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Lecco 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 67% (Lecco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Lecco in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Lecco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cremonese's games and 67% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cremonese's matches and 67% of Lecco's.
Do Cremonese and Lecco tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lecco in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Lecco 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Lecco 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.14 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecco landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Lecco attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 67%, Lecco 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecco's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.