Palermo vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Palermo at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Benevento encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Palermo and Benevento meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.

Benevento have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Serie B outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

The points-per-game gap of 1.67 in Palermo's favour (2.00 vs 0.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.

Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palermo 67% and Benevento 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 67% | Benevento 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.93 xG and Benevento 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.251 / defence 0.828 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Palermo games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palermo 67% | Draw 21% | Benevento 12%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Benevento 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 40% | Benevento 67%.

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