Hellas Verona vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Benevento meet at in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hellas Verona have posted 1W 2D 7L at — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benevento (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Serie B outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Hellas Verona against 0.33 for Benevento. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 67% and Benevento 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 67% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.91 xG and Benevento 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.240 / defence 1.079 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Hellas Verona games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 62% | Draw 22% | Benevento 17%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Benevento 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 20% | Benevento 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 62% | Draw 22% | Benevento 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Hellas Verona 1.91 / Benevento 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.240 / def 1.079 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Benevento xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Benevento kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Benevento part of?
Hellas Verona vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 62% chance of winning, Benevento a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hellas Verona and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Benevento in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.24) and Benevento's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.70x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.61
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.78
0.87
Benevento xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.74
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
40.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.87 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Benevento?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hellas Verona are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Benevento in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Hellas Verona or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benevento in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Hellas Verona, 67% for Benevento — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hellas Verona) and 33% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hellas Verona's games and 67% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Benevento tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.