Feralpisalo 2-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Brescia at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feralpisalo face Brescia.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Leonardo Garilli plays host to Feralpisalo versus Brescia in Serie B (matchday 36). Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Feralpisalo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Feralpisalo have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Brescia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Brescia have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Feralpisalo against 1.40 for Brescia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Feralpisalo's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Feralpisalo's games and 70% of Brescia's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Feralpisalo 1–1 Brescia — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 57% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 57% | Brescia 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.33 xG and Brescia 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.097 / defence 1.548 | Brescia attack 0.887 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.189. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.548 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 35 games and Brescia's last 73.

Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 28% | Brescia 43%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.40 | Draw 3.59 | Brescia 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 70% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 70% (last 10 away games).

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