Brescia 4-1 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Lecco travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
Lecco — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Lecco have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Brescia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brescia, 0 for Lecco and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lecco trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 53% versus Lecco 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 31% | Lecco 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.82 xG and Lecco 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.921 / defence 0.788 | Lecco attack 0.716 / defence 1.612. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.612 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Brescia's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Brescia games / 36 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 64% | Draw 25% | Lecco 11%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Lecco 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 40% | Lecco 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 64% | Draw 25% | Lecco 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 42% | xG Brescia 1.82 / Lecco 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.921 / def 0.788 | Lecco attack 0.716 / def 1.612 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Brescia (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lecco xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Lecco kick off?
Brescia vs Lecco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Lecco?
Brescia 4 - 1 Lecco.
Where is Brescia vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Lecco part of?
Brescia vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 64% chance of winning, Lecco a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Brescia and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Lecco?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Lecco 0W.
What form are Brescia and Lecco in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Lecco (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brescia's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lecco's defence at 1.61x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
64%
1.57
25%
4.03
11%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.48
0.66
Lecco xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
8.70
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
2%
53.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Brescia and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Brescia and 0.66 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Lecco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 15D 10L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 0.72 PPG from 36 outings (6W 8D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Lecco — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 6W 8D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (2W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 0.89 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Lecco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Lecco in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 11W 15D 10L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Lecco have gone 6W 8D 22L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Lecco away?
Brescia's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.44 PPG; Lecco away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Lecco runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Brescia
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Brescia 4-1 Lecco.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Lecco?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 44%, Lecco 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Brescia) and 56% (Lecco).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 39% of games; Lecco in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Lecco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Brescia's recent matches and 56% of Lecco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Brescia's recent games and 56% of Lecco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Lecco tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lecco in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brescia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Lecco 4-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.82 xG and Lecco 0.66 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.92 / defence 0.79 against Lecco attack 0.72 / defence 1.61, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 64% | Draw 25% | Lecco 11%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 31%, Lecco 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lecco's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Lecco (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.