Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet in-form Cremonese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cremonese vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Cosenza travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cremonese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cremonese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cosenza in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Cremonese: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Cosenza, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Cosenza winning.
The historical record gives Cremonese a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Cosenza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.08 xG and Cosenza 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.862 / defence 1.112 | Cosenza attack 1.074 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.040. Data: 59 Cremonese games / 59 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 37%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Cosenza 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 60% | Cosenza 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Cremonese 1.08 / Cosenza 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.862 / def 1.112 | Cosenza attack 1.074 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cosenza xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Cosenza kick off?
Cremonese vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Cremonese 3 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Cremonese vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cosenza part of?
Cremonese vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 29% chance of winning, Cosenza a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cremonese and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cosenza?
Record (5 meetings): Cremonese 4W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Cosenza in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.86) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
29%
3.46
34%
2.94
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Cosenza xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.24 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 28W 16D 15L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 15W 24D 20L from 59 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 8W 10D 10L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.15 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 28W 16D 15L in their last 59 games (1.69 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 15W 24D 20L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cosenza away?
Cremonese's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.68 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cosenza in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 5, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Cosenza?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Cosenza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cremonese) and 32% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cremonese's recent games and 32% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cosenza tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.08 xG and Cosenza 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Cosenza attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 37%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.