Udinese 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Udinese at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Parma encounter.

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Match Analysis

Udinese host Parma at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Udinese — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Udinese's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Parma have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Parma away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.40 PPG versus Parma's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Udinese: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Parma, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Udinese 2–0 Parma — a Udinese win.

The head-to-head data gives Udinese an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Udinese in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).

Parma in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 51% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Parma 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Parma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.06 xG and Parma 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.846 / defence 0.871 | Parma attack 0.793 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.160. Parma's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Udinese's last 70 games and Parma's last 70.

Result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 32% | Parma 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.43 | Draw 3.14 | Parma 3.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Udinese 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Parma 40% (last 10 away games).

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