Pisa 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Genoa meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 1W 1D 8L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Genoa are 0.90 PPG clear of Pisa in recent Serie A fixtures (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pisa lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 49% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 51% | Genoa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.85 xG and Genoa 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.653 / defence 1.166 | Genoa attack 0.888 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.156. Pisa's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Pisa games / 70 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 26% | Draw 30% | Genoa 44%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 40% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 26% | Draw 30% | Genoa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Pisa 0.85 / Genoa 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.653 / def 1.166 | Genoa attack 0.888 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Genoa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Genoa xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Genoa kick off?
Pisa vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Genoa?
Pisa 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Pisa vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Genoa part of?
Pisa vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 26% chance of winning, Genoa a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pisa and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Genoa?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Pisa and Genoa in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.65) and Genoa's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.89x) against Pisa's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
26%
3.80
30%
3.36
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.05
1.20
Genoa xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Pisa and 1.20 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 70 games, going 24W 20D 26L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.13 PPG from 70 outings (19W 22D 29L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Pisa against 1.13 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 15W 7D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.03 points per game from 34 outings (8W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.07 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Genoa in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 24W 20D 26L in their last 70 games (1.31 PPG), while Genoa have gone 19W 22D 29L in their last 70 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Genoa away?
Pisa's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.53 PPG; Genoa away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Genoa?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Pisa 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 44%, Genoa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pisa) and 44% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 38% of games; Genoa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pisa's recent matches and 53% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pisa's recent games and 44% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Genoa tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Genoa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.85 xG and Genoa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.65 / defence 1.17 against Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 26% | Draw 30% | Genoa 44%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 51%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.31 PPG, Genoa 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.