Fiorentina vs Cagliari – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cagliari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cagliari are 0.70 PPG clear of Fiorentina in recent Serie A fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Fiorentina are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Cagliari winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fiorentina and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 62% versus Cagliari 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 57% | Cagliari 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.50 xG and Cagliari 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.829 / defence 1.154 | Cagliari attack 0.826 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Data: 47 Fiorentina games / 48 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 40% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 35%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Cagliari 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Fiorentina dominate the H2H record, yet Cagliari are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cagliari (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 60% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 40% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Fiorentina 1.50 / Cagliari 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.829 / def 1.154 | Cagliari attack 0.826 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cagliari xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Cagliari kick off?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Where is Fiorentina vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Cagliari part of?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 40% chance of winning, Cagliari a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fiorentina and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
Record (8 meetings): Fiorentina 5W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.83) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.83x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
40%
2.50
25%
4.04
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.90
1.40
Cagliari xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.40 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 10W 17D 20L from 47 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 22L across 47 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.17 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 4W 11D 9L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.02 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 10W 17D 20L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Cagliari away?
Cagliari's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 0.96 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 67%, Cagliari 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fiorentina) and 67% (Cagliari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fiorentina's games and 62% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fiorentina's matches and 67% of Cagliari's.
Do Fiorentina and Cagliari tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.