Cremonese 1-4 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Como at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Como stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Como away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Como — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Cremonese hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Como, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cremonese and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 55% versus Como 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Como 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.68 xG and Como 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.776 / defence 1.203 | Como attack 1.106 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.151. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Como's defence strength of 0.718 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Cremonese games / 75 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 26% | Como 58%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 6.25 | Draw 3.85 | Como 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Como (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Cremonese dominate the H2H record, yet Como are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Como 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 26% | Como 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG Cremonese 0.68 / Como 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.776 / def 1.203 | Como attack 1.106 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Como (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Como xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Como kick off?
Cremonese vs Como kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Como?
Cremonese 1 - 4 Como.
Where is Cremonese vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Como part of?
Cremonese vs Como is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 16% chance of winning, Como a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Como?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cremonese and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Como?
Record (5 meetings): Cremonese 4W | Draws 1 | Como 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Como in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Como (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
16%
6.08
26%
3.89
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.21
1.53
Como xG
6.08
16%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
4%
28.09
29%
3.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.53 for Como, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Como?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 75 games, going 24W 24D 27L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.56 PPG from 75 outings (32W 21D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.28 PPG, Como on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 10W 16D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.41 points per game from 37 outings (14W 10D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.47 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Como in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 24W 24D 27L in their last 75 games (1.28 PPG), while Como have gone 32W 21D 22L in their last 75 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.24 PPG; Como away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Como in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Como won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Como specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 4, Como have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Como last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Como.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Como?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 62%, Como 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Cremonese) and 43% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 32%; Como in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Cremonese's recent matches and 43% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Cremonese's recent games and 43% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Como tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Como in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Como run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Cremonese 1-4 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.68 xG and Como 1.53 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Como outscored their 1.53 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Como attack 1.11 / defence 0.72, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 16% | Draw 26% | Como 58%, with Como to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Como 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.28 PPG, Como 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.