Atalanta 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Inter (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atalanta face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Inter meet at New Balance Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at New Balance Arena, Atalanta have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 1.20 PPG clear of Atalanta in recent Serie A fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Inter have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Atalanta's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Atalanta — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Inter — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 55% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 49% | Inter 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.25 xG and Inter 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.044 / defence 0.977 | Inter attack 1.304 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.118. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Atalanta games / 53 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 33% | Draw 26% | Inter 41%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Inter 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 70% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 33% | Draw 26% | Inter 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Atalanta 1.25 / Inter 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.044 / def 0.977 | Inter attack 1.304 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Inter (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Inter xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Inter kick off?
Atalanta vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 December 2025 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Inter?
Atalanta 0 - 1 Inter.
Where is Atalanta vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Inter part of?
Atalanta vs Inter is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 33% chance of winning, Inter a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Atalanta and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Inter?
Record (8 meetings): Atalanta 0W | Draws 2 | Inter 6W.
What form are Atalanta and Inter in?
Atalanta (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.04) and Inter's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.30x) against Atalanta's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.87
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.68
1.43
Inter xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.43 for Inter, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atalanta come into this having played 53 games, going 26W 15D 12L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.15 PPG from 53 outings (35W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Atalanta against 2.15 for Inter. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Atalanta's home form reads 11W 9D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.04 points per game from 26 outings (16W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.13 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Inter in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 26W 15D 12L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Inter have gone 35W 9D 9L in their last 53 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.62 PPG; Inter away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Inter in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 28 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atalanta
3
Draws
7
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 0, Inter have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Inter 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 65%, Inter 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atalanta) and 50% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Atalanta's recent matches and 38% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atalanta's recent games and 50% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Inter tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Inter in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Atalanta 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Atalanta 0-1 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.25 xG and Inter 1.43 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Inter attack 1.30 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 33% | Draw 26% | Inter 41%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 49%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.75 PPG, Inter 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.