UCD 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 62%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this UCD vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derry City make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 24 June 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
UCD's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derry City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward UCD. A 1.40 PPG lead over Derry City (3.00 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — UCD register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Derry City in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — UCD lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 1–7 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.75 xG and Derry City 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.675 / defence 1.301 | Derry City attack 1.225 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.107. UCD's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 UCD games / 56 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 15% | Draw 23% | Derry City 62%. Fair-value odds: UCD 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | Derry City 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jun 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 15% | Draw 23% | Derry City 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG UCD 0.75 / Derry City 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.675 / def 1.301 | Derry City attack 1.225 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Derry City (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Derry City xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Derry City kick off?
UCD vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 June 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Derry City?
UCD 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is UCD vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Derry City part of?
UCD vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 15% chance of winning, Derry City a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both UCD and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Derry City?
Record (2 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | Derry City 2W.
What form are UCD and Derry City in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.68) and Derry City's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.23x) against UCD's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 19/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
15%
6.47
23%
4.37
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
UCD xG
Total xG
2.51
1.76
Derry City xG
6.47
15%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
3%
37.75
29%
3.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are UCD and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for UCD and 1.76 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Derry City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
UCD come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derry City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for UCD against 3.00 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
UCD are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. UCD's scoring rate against Derry City's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: UCD have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Derry City in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Early Season
Derry City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Derry City in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Derry City have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 7-1 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
0
Draws
8
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Derry City?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Derry City have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Derry City 6-0 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of UCD's games and 100% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is UCD vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of UCD's matches and 100% of Derry City's.
Do UCD and Derry City tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Derry City in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out UCD 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat UCD 0-1 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.75 xG and Derry City 1.76 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.68 / defence 1.30 against Derry City attack 1.23 / defence 0.85, drawn from 19/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 15% | Draw 23% | Derry City 62%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 100%, Derry City 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — UCD 3.00 PPG, Derry City 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. UCD managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.