St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Waterford have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Waterford 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.140 / defence 0.874 | Waterford attack 0.918 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.008. Data: 46 St Patrick's Athl. games / 10 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Waterford 4.76. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 / Waterford 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.140 / def 0.874 | Waterford attack 0.918 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Waterford xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 1 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 52% chance of winning, Waterford a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.14) and Waterford's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.92x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 46/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.66
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.25
0.81
Waterford xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
5%
20.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.81 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waterford's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Waterford are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St Patrick's Athl..
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford finished level at 1-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Waterford 0.81 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Waterford attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.