Bohemians 1-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Drogheda United meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bohemians, 1.20 for Drogheda United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Drogheda United in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Drogheda United half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Drogheda United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Drogheda United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.25 xG and Drogheda United 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.951 / defence 1.021 | Drogheda United attack 0.816 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.008. Data: 46 Bohemians games / 45 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 46% | Draw 30% | Drogheda United 25%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Drogheda United 4.00. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 60% | Drogheda United 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 46% | Draw 30% | Drogheda United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Bohemians 1.25 / Drogheda United 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.951 / def 1.021 | Drogheda United attack 0.816 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Drogheda United xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Drogheda United kick off?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is Bohemians vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Drogheda United part of?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 46% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bohemians and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Drogheda United's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.82x) against Bohemians's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.38
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.09
0.84
Drogheda United xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.84 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 28W 20D 24L from 72 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 31L across 72 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians against 1.10 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 17W 9D 10L from 36 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 7W 10D 19L across 36 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.03 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 games (1.44 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Drogheda United away?
Bohemians's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.67 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Drogheda United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, Drogheda United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bohemians) and 53% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Drogheda United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Drogheda United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians's games and 56% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bohemians's matches and 53% of Drogheda United's.
Do Bohemians and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Drogheda United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.25 xG and Drogheda United 0.84 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Drogheda United attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 46% | Draw 30% | Drogheda United 25%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, Drogheda United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Drogheda United 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.