Volos NFC 1-1 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Volos NFC take on Kallithea.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Volos NFC welcome Kallithea to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kallithea stand at 0W 4D 1L from 5 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Kallithea have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kallithea have posted 0W 2D 1L from 3 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.10 PPG, Kallithea 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kallithea trading profile (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 40% versus Kallithea 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Volos NFC 40% | Kallithea 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.07 xG and Kallithea 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.863 / defence 1.470 | Kallithea attack 0.628 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.227. Data: 31 Volos NFC games / 5 Kallithea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 30% | Draw 37% | Kallithea 33%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Kallithea 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 80% | Kallithea 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 30% | Draw 37% | Kallithea 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Volos NFC 1.07 / Kallithea 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.863 / def 1.470 | Kallithea attack 0.628 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Kallithea xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Kallithea kick off?
Volos NFC vs Kallithea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Kallithea.
Where is Volos NFC vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Kallithea part of?
Volos NFC vs Kallithea is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 30% chance of winning, Kallithea a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Volos NFC and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kallithea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Kallithea in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Kallithea (all comps): 0W-4D-1L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Kallithea's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kallithea's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
37%
2.69
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.20
1.13
Kallithea xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.13 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 0D 4L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kallithea sit at 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kallithea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 0.60 PPG, Kallithea on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.60 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Kallithea have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kallithea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Kallithea in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Kallithea
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 0W 4D 1L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Kallithea away?
Kallithea's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.00 PPG; Kallithea away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Kallithea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Kallithea in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Kallithea runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC's record when hosting Kallithea specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
2
Draws
2
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kallithea?
From 4 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Kallithea have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Volos NFC 0-2 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Kallithea?
Kallithea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Kallithea see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 67%, Kallithea 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Volos NFC) and 33% (Kallithea).
On the defensive side: Kallithea in 67%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 33% of games; Kallithea in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Kallithea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 33% of Kallithea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Volos NFC's recent games and 33% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Kallithea tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Kallithea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Kallithea finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.07 xG and Kallithea 1.13 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 1.47 against Kallithea attack 0.63 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 30% | Draw 37% | Kallithea 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 40%, Kallithea 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Kallithea's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.60 PPG, Kallithea 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.