Volos NFC 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Volos NFC welcome Asteras Tripolis to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 1.20 (Asteras Tripolis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 3 for Asteras Tripolis and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 51% versus Asteras Tripolis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 53% | Asteras Tripolis 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.86 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.668 / defence 1.070 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.863 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.272. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Volos NFC games / 40 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 26% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 42%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Asteras Tripolis 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 50% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 26% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Volos NFC 0.86 / Asteras Tripolis 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.668 / def 1.070 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.863 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Asteras Tripolis xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Volos NFC 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 26% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (7 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 2 | Asteras Tripolis 3W.
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
26%
3.82
32%
3.15
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.04
1.17
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.17 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 11D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.15 PPG from 47 outings (15W 9D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 5W 6D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.15 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.91 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
4
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 65%, Asteras Tripolis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Volos NFC) and 52% (Asteras Tripolis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 30%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 26% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Asteras Tripolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Volos NFC's games and 52% of Asteras Tripolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Volos NFC's matches and 52% of Asteras Tripolis's.
Do Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.86 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.17 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.67 / defence 1.07 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 26% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 42%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 53%, Asteras Tripolis 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.