PAOK 2-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PAOK face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAOK and Panetolikos meet at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1 (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Panetolikos (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. PAOK's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, PAOK have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Panetolikos managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2022, ended PAOK 2–0 Panetolikos — a PAOK win.
The head-to-head data gives PAOK an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus Panetolikos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 51% | Panetolikos 40%). Note also that Panetolikos surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while PAOK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.14 xG and Panetolikos 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.108 / defence 0.677 | Panetolikos attack 0.831 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.149. Panetolikos's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAOK's projected output up. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.677), which is pulling Panetolikos's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 36 games and Panetolikos's last 36.
Result probabilities: PAOK 69% | Draw 23% | Panetolikos 7%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.44 | Draw 4.29 | Panetolikos 13.59. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (69%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 40% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 69% | Draw 23% | Panetolikos 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG PAOK 2.14 / Panetolikos 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.108 / def 0.677 | Panetolikos attack 0.831 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: PAOK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Panetolikos xG
45%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panetolikos?
PAOK 2 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Panetolikos part of?
PAOK vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 69% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 7% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAOK and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will PAOK vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.83x) against PAOK's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 36 games and Panetolikos's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
69%
1.44
23%
4.29
7%
13.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.78
0.65
Panetolikos xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
13.59
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
115.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for PAOK and 0.65 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK's recent record stands at 23W 11D 9L from 43 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 23L across 43 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 13W 4D 4L from their last 21 home games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across their last 21 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.88 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ PAOK vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 11D 9L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 8W 12D 23L in their last 43 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panetolikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.05 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.81 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between PAOK and Panetolikos, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
PAOK have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panetolikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 9, Panetolikos have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Panetolikos 1-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panetolikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 33%, Panetolikos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PAOK) and 52% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Panetolikos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Panetolikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAOK's recent matches and 57% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PAOK's recent games and 52% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of PAOK's recent matches and 81% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panetolikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.14 xG and Panetolikos 0.65 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.11 / defence 0.68 against Panetolikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 69% | Draw 23% | Panetolikos 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 51%, Panetolikos 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.