Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Asteras Tripolis face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.20 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.30 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 0–5 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 35% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.821 / defence 1.318 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.311 / defence 0.675. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.145. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.675 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Asteras Tripolis games / 36 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 12% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 61%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 8.33 | Draw 3.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 12% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.85 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.821 / def 1.318 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.311 / def 0.675 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 12% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 61% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (4 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.82x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.31x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
12%
8.10
27%
3.72
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.83
1.98
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
8.10
12%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
14%
7.23
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
2%
58.58
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.98 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 8W 18D 17L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 26W 11D 6L from 43 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (6W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 6D 3L from 20 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.14 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 8W 18D 17L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 11D 6L in their last 43 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.40 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 40%, Olympiakos Piraeus 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Asteras Tripolis) and 45% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 55%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 40% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 0-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.98 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.82 / defence 1.32 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.31 / defence 0.68, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 12% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 61%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 35%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.