PAOK 3-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (68%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PAOK face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
PAOK (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
PAOK's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Levadiakos have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.80 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, PAOK have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Levadiakos managing 0 and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended PAOK 3–2 Levadiakos — a PAOK win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both PAOK and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 52% versus Levadiakos 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 62% | Levadiakos 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.11 xG and Levadiakos 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.284 / defence 0.614 | Levadiakos attack 1.120 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.111. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 2.11 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAOK's projected output up. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.614), which is pulling Levadiakos's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 50 games and Levadiakos's last 50.
Result probabilities: PAOK 68% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.48 | Draw 4.76 | Levadiakos 8.74. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (68%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 30% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 68% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG PAOK 2.11 / Levadiakos 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.284 / def 0.614 | Levadiakos attack 1.120 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: PAOK (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Levadiakos xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Levadiakos FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Levadiakos kick off?
PAOK vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Levadiakos?
PAOK 3 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is PAOK vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Levadiakos part of?
PAOK vs Levadiakos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 68% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAOK and Levadiakos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will PAOK vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.28x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.12x) against PAOK's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 50 games and Levadiakos's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
68%
1.48
21%
4.76
11%
8.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.87
0.76
Levadiakos xG
1.48
68%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
8.74
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
1%
71.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Levadiakos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are PAOK and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for PAOK and 0.76 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK come into this having played 56 games, going 34W 10D 12L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.55 PPG from 56 outings (24W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PAOK's home form reads 19W 4D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.75 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 61%.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
PAOK (Home) vs Levadiakos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ PAOK vs Levadiakos Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 34W 10D 12L in their last 56 games (2.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 24W 15D 17L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Levadiakos away?
PAOK's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.18 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.50 PPG.
Have PAOK or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between PAOK and Levadiakos, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
PAOK have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Levadiakos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Levadiakos?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 6, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAOK and Levadiakos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Levadiakos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 39%, Levadiakos 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (PAOK) and 54% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Levadiakos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Levadiakos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of PAOK's recent matches and 61% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Levadiakos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of PAOK's matches and 54% of Levadiakos's.
Do PAOK and Levadiakos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of PAOK's recent matches and 82% of Levadiakos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Levadiakos 3-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.11 xG and Levadiakos 0.76 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.28 / defence 0.61 against Levadiakos attack 1.12 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 68% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 11%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 62%, Levadiakos 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levadiakos's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.55. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.