OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Pankritio Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 6W 0D 4L at Pankritio Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (OFI) versus 1.90 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 9 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for OFI.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 9 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 64% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.97 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.178 / defence 0.966 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / defence 0.610. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.119. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.610 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 OFI games / 50 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG OFI 0.97 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.178 / def 0.966 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / def 0.610 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 29% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (9 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 9W.
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.18) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.34
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
OFI xG
Total xG
2.19
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for OFI and 1.22 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, OFI have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 19W 10D 27L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 39W 12D 5L from 56 games, 2.30 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (11W 4D 13L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 6D 4L from 28 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.79 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 19W 10D 27L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 12D 5L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.32 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.14 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OFI
0
Draws
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (OFI) and 36% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 61%; OFI have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of OFI's recent matches and 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of OFI's recent games and 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 0-3 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.97 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. OFI fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.61, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 29% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 64%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.