Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 OFI – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Olympiakos Piraeus face OFI.

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Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

OFI's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 60% of OFI's (from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 0 for OFI and 0 draws.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2024, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 OFI — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

The head-to-head data gives Olympiakos Piraeus an edge — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).

OFI in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 53% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | OFI 57%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Olympiakos Piraeus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG and OFI 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.188 / defence 0.847 | OFI attack 1.158 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.147. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 51 games and OFI's last 51.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 25% | OFI 27%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.05 | Draw 4.05 | OFI 3.77. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% (last 10 home games) | OFI 60% (last 10 away games).

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