OFI 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OFI and Lamia meet at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, OFI have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Lamia (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Lamia have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. OFI's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Lamia's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for OFI, 1 for Lamia and 5 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended OFI 1–1 Lamia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus Lamia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Lamia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 2.00 xG and Lamia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.066 / defence 1.285 | Lamia attack 0.619 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.169. Lamia's defence rating of 1.442 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. Lamia's attack rating of 0.619 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. OFI's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamia's projected output up. Data: built from OFI's last 50 games and Lamia's last 50.
Result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 21% | Lamia 17%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.61 | Draw 4.77 | Lamia 5.96. The model has a clear lean to OFI (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (OFI's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 21% | Lamia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG OFI 2.00 / Lamia 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.066 / def 1.285 | Lamia attack 0.619 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: OFI (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Lamia xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Lamia FAQs
What time does OFI vs Lamia kick off?
OFI vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Lamia?
OFI 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is OFI vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Lamia part of?
OFI vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 62% chance of winning, Lamia a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.07x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.62x) against OFI's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 50 games and Lamia's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.77
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
OFI xG
Total xG
2.93
0.93
Lamia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
43.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are OFI and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for OFI and 0.93 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 20D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.75 PPG from 57 outings (10W 13D 34L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 10W 9D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.93 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Lamia
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ OFI vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Lamia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 13D 34L in their last 57 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Lamia away?
OFI's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.39 PPG; Lamia away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OFI and Lamia, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won Lamia 1-4 OFI on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Lamia?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 54%, Lamia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 57% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of OFI's recent matches and 54% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 57% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of OFI's recent matches and 68% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Lamia 3-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 2.00 xG and Lamia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Lamia attack 0.62 / defence 1.44, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 62% | Draw 21% | Lamia 17%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 56%, Lamia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.