Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Panathinaikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panathinaikos at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Panathinaikos's 2.30 PPG return is 2.30 points per game ahead of Lamia's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lamia's 30% rate and Panathinaikos's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Panathinaikos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9 encounters against Lamia's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Panathinaikos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Panathinaikos have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 51% versus Panathinaikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 58% | Panathinaikos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.61 xG and Panathinaikos 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.542 / defence 1.229 | Panathinaikos attack 0.936 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.162. Lamia's attack strength of 0.542 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Lamia games / 49 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 17% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 55%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | Panathinaikos 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 30% | Panathinaikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 17% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 33% | xG Lamia 0.61 / Panathinaikos 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.542 / def 1.229 | Panathinaikos attack 0.936 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Panathinaikos xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Lamia 3 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panathinaikos part of?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 17% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Lamia and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
Record (9 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 8W.
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.54x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.61. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 17.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
17%
5.92
29%
3.51
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.94
1.34
Panathinaikos xG
5.92
17%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
55%
1.83
Win to Nil
4%
22.53
30%
3.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 19.2 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Lamia and 1.34 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia come into this having played 59 games, going 10W 14D 35L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.97 PPG from 59 outings (34W 14D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamia's home form reads 6W 6D 17L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.79 points per game from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.81 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 10W 14D 35L in their last 59 games (0.75 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 34W 14D 11L in their last 59 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.83 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Lamia or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
8
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 48%, Panathinaikos 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lamia) and 55% (Panathinaikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 41%; Lamia have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lamia's recent matches and 45% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Lamia's matches and 55% of Panathinaikos's.
Do Lamia and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Panathinaikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panathinaikos 3-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.61 xG and Panathinaikos 1.34 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.54 / defence 1.23 against Panathinaikos attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 17% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 55%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 58%, Panathinaikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.