Lamia 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's home record at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamia 1.50 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Lamia have won 3, Asteras Tripolis 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Lamia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 48% versus Asteras Tripolis 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 48% | Asteras Tripolis 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.64 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.966 / defence 1.138 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.044 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.283. Data: 47 Lamia games / 47 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Asteras Tripolis 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 60% | Asteras Tripolis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Lamia 1.64 / Asteras Tripolis 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.966 / def 1.138 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.044 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Lamia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Asteras Tripolis xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 40% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lamia and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (7 meetings): Lamia 3W | Draws 2 | Asteras Tripolis 2W.
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in?
Lamia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.97x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.98
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.17
1.52
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lamia and 1.52 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Lamia have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 13W 20D 21L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 14W 18D 22L from 54 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 1.09 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 7D 15L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 13W 20D 21L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Lamia's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.31 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Lamia or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lamia
3
Draws
3
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, Asteras Tripolis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamia) and 42% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 27% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 38% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamia's recent games and 42% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.64 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.52 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 40% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 35%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 48%, Asteras Tripolis 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 1.09 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.