PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lamia at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Lamia encounter.

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Analysis

Lamia make the trip to Stadio Zosimades to face PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

PAS Giannina have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.

Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Lamia are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAS Giannina lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Lamia winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

PAS Giannina — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Lamia — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 55% versus Lamia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 47% | Lamia 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.12 xG and Lamia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.678 / defence 0.996 | Lamia attack 0.883 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.298. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 PAS Giannina games / 46 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 34% | Draw 31% | Lamia 35%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Lamia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 30% | Lamia 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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