Asteras Tripolis 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.70 for PAOK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Asteras Tripolis's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 50% versus PAOK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 52% | PAOK 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.09 xG and PAOK 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.051 / defence 0.791 | PAOK attack 1.309 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.259. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Asteras Tripolis games / 37 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 28% | PAOK 41%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | PAOK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Asteras Tripolis 50% | PAOK 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 28% | PAOK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.09 / PAOK 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.051 / def 0.791 | PAOK attack 1.309 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: PAOK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.30
PAOK xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 31% chance of winning, PAOK a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
Record (6 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 2 | PAOK 4W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 1.05x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.31x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.57
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.40
1.30
PAOK xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.30 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 9D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.14 PPG from 44 outings (29W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 2.23 points per game from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.30 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while PAOK have gone 29W 7D 8L in their last 44 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.18 PPG; PAOK away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, PAOK in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, PAOK have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, PAOK 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Asteras Tripolis and 68% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Asteras Tripolis's games and 73% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Asteras Tripolis's matches and 68% of PAOK's.
Do Asteras Tripolis and PAOK tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Asteras Tripolis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 1-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.09 xG and PAOK 1.30 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against PAOK attack 1.31 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 28% | PAOK 41%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 52%, PAOK 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.