Olympiakos Piraeus 4-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AEK Athens FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 51% versus AEK Athens FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 62% | AEK Athens FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.02 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.138 / defence 0.871 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.771 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.270. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 37 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 38% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | AEK Athens FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | AEK Athens FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 38% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.02 / AEK Athens FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.138 / def 0.871 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.771 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.85
AEK Athens FC xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 38% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Record (2 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 1W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.14x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (0.77x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.08
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.87
0.85
AEK Athens FC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.85 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 47 games, going 29W 9D 9L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.11 PPG from 47 outings (29W 12D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.04 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.11 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 17W 3D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AEK Athens FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.04 scored and 0.83 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 29W 9D 9L in their last 47 games (2.04 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 29W 12D 6L in their last 47 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.35 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, AEK Athens FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 61% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 52% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 61% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AEK Athens FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 4-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.02 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 38% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 29%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 62%, AEK Athens FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.48 average — above their attacking norm. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.