Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
PAOK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 3W, PAOK 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus PAOK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 44% | PAOK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 xG and PAOK 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.996 / defence 0.903 | PAOK attack 1.401 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.163. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Aris Thessalonikis games / 44 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 28% | Draw 26% | PAOK 46%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | PAOK 2.17. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 28% | Draw 26% | PAOK 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 / PAOK 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.996 / def 0.903 | PAOK attack 1.401 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: PAOK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.47
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 PAOK.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 28% chance of winning, PAOK a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
Record (6 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 1 | PAOK 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.00x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.40x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
28%
3.55
26%
3.84
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.57
1.47
PAOK xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.47 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 24W 10D 20L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 35W 8D 11L across 54 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 15W 5D 7L from 27 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 18W 4D 5L across 27 trips, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.22 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while PAOK have gone 35W 8D 11L in their last 54 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.85 PPG; PAOK away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, PAOK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 56%, PAOK 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 67% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 70% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 67% of PAOK's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, PAOK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 19, as Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 xG and PAOK 1.47 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against PAOK attack 1.40 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 28% | Draw 26% | PAOK 46%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 44%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAOK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.