Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at : 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Union Berlin, 1.10 for 1. FC Köln — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, Union Berlin are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 63% and 1. FC Köln 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 63% | 1. FC Köln 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.14 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.066 / defence 1.182 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.967 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 Union Berlin games / 35 1. FC Köln games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 27%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Köln 3.70. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Union Berlin 2.14 / 1. FC Köln 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.066 / def 1.182 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.967 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.53
1. FC Köln xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 51% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 6W | Draws 3 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (1.07) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.97x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.47
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.67
1.53
1. FC Köln xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
3%
31.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.53 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 16L across 35 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.00 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 4W 8D 5L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 2W 7D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.49 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 80%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.18 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
3
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Union Berlin, 71% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Union Berlin and 53% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Union Berlin's games and 71% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Union Berlin's matches and 53% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.