SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Schalke 04 at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 0.90 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against SC Paderborn 07's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Schalke 04 have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus FC Schalke 04 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 57% | FC Schalke 04 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.19 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.663 / defence 0.955 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.774 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 SC Paderborn 07 games / 8 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 31%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | FC Schalke 04 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 70% | FC Schalke 04 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.19 / FC Schalke 04 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.663 / def 0.955 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.774 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC Schalke 04 xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 39% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
Record (8 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 5W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.66) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.32
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.21
1.02
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.02 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 20W 11D 11L from 42 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 10L across 42 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.69 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 12W 3D 6L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.29 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.86 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
5
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 71%, FC Schalke 04 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Paderborn 07) and 52% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 33%; FC Schalke 04 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 48% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 52% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.