Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 53%, yet the head-to-head data favours SC Paderborn 07 — this Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SC Paderborn 07 away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.30 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to SC Paderborn 07, who have 5 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2026, ended Hamburger SV 0–1 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 60% versus SC Paderborn 07 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 58% | SC Paderborn 07 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.55 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.896 / defence 1.018 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.639 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.358. SC Paderborn 07's attack rating of 0.639 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 43 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 9.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 22%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.89 | Draw 3.90 | SC Paderborn 07 4.65. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.55 / SC Paderborn 07 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.896 / def 1.018 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.639 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.88
SC Paderborn 07 xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Volksparkstadion.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 53% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.90) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.64x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 43 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.90
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.43
0.88
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
21.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.88 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 13W 11D 19L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 11L across 43 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hamburger SV heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 9W 6D 6L from their last 21 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 8W 8D 5L across their last 21 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.53 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.57 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 67%, SC Paderborn 07 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Hamburger SV) and 48% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 48%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 43% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 48% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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