1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0.90 for VfL Bochum — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfL Bochum half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus VfL Bochum 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 58% | VfL Bochum 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.10 xG and VfL Bochum 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.996 / defence 1.220 | VfL Bochum attack 0.782 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.937 / away 1.488. Data: 11 1. FC Heidenheim games / 45 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 25% | VfL Bochum 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | VfL Bochum 4.17. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | VfL Bochum 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 25% | VfL Bochum 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.10 / VfL Bochum 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.996 / def 1.220 | VfL Bochum attack 0.782 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.937 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.42
VfL Bochum xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 51% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.00x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.78x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.03
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.52
1.42
VfL Bochum xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
3%
34.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.42 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 22W 11D 12L from 45 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 23L across 45 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Bochum heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 15W 4D 3L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VfL Bochum's away record stands at 3W 5D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.13 scored and 2.16 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 11W 11D 23L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or VfL Bochum away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.23 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.64 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
3
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 50%, VfL Bochum 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 59% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 41% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 59% of VfL Bochum's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 12, as 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.10 xG and VfL Bochum 1.42 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 2.1 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.00 / defence 1.22 against VfL Bochum attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 25% | VfL Bochum 24%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 58%, VfL Bochum 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.