1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim welcome FSV Mainz 05 to PreZero Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1899 Hoffenheim — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1899 Hoffenheim's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FSV Mainz 05 have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
1899 Hoffenheim carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 60% of FSV Mainz 05's (from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 3 for FSV Mainz 05 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 — a FSV Mainz 05 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 73% and FSV Mainz 05 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | FSV Mainz 05 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.06 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.973 / defence 1.270 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.793 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.913 / away 1.470. FSV Mainz 05's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.48. 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating of 1.270 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FSV Mainz 05's projected output up. Data: built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 45 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 45.
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 26%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.05 | Draw 3.91 | FSV Mainz 05 3.92. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1899 Hoffenheim 90% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.06 / FSV Mainz 05 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.973 / def 1.270 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.793 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.913 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 49% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 0.97x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 45 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.91
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.54
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
3%
30.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.48 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1899 Hoffenheim's recent record stands at 16W 7D 22L from 45 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 18L across 45 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.22 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1899 Hoffenheim have managed 8W 2D 12L from their last 22 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across their last 22 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.44 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 64%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim (Home) vs FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Form FAQs
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 16W 7D 22L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 14D 18L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.18 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Sep 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 1899 Hoffenheim 4-1 FSV Mainz 05.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
2
Draws
6
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 77%, FSV Mainz 05 at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 68% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 64% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 68% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 86% of FSV Mainz 05's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 finished level at 1-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.06 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.97 / defence 1.27 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 26%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, FSV Mainz 05 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.22 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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