Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome FC Schalke 04 to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 January 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 2W 5D 0L from 7 Bundesliga appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 0W 2D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.29 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 3.71 conceded per game.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 80% and FC Schalke 04 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 53% | FC Schalke 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.50 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.066 / defence 1.076 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.628 / defence 1.949. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.469. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.949 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 15 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | Draw 20% | FC Schalke 04 11%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | FC Schalke 04 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 100% | FC Schalke 04 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | Draw 20% | FC Schalke 04 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.50 / FC Schalke 04 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.066 / def 1.076 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.628 / def 1.949 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC Schalke 04 xG
59%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 January 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 69% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04 in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
69%
1.46
20%
5.00
11%
8.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.50
0.99
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
8.80
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
8%
12.22
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
1%
107.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.99 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 5W 8D 2L from 15 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 10L across 15 games — 0.47 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Schalke 04 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 2W 5D 0L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 0W 2D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 8D 2L in their last 15 games (1.53 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 4D 10L in their last 15 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.57 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
Draws
1
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when FC Schalke 04 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 100%, FC Schalke 04 at 43%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 100% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 43% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 100% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC Schalke 04 3-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.50 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.99 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.63 / defence 1.95, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | Draw 20% | FC Schalke 04 11%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 53%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.