Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Frankfurt face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 5W 2D 3L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deutsche Bank Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Eintracht Frankfurt are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Eintracht Frankfurt have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while 1. FC Heidenheim have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eintracht Frankfurt and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | 1. FC Heidenheim 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.033 / defence 1.007 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.736 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.396. Data: 59 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 59 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 18%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Heidenheim 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | 1. FC Heidenheim 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.033 / def 1.007 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.736 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.03
1. FC Heidenheim xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 60% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 4W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.63
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.08
1.03
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
2%
43.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.03 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 59 games, going 26W 17D 16L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 0.69 PPG from 59 outings (10W 11D 38L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 16W 6D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 0.76 points per game from 29 outings (6W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.00 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 17D 16L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 11D 38L in their last 59 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.86 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
Draws
0
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 59% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; 1. FC Heidenheim in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 55% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.03 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.0 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 18%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 64%, 1. FC Heidenheim 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.