Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 7W 3D 0L at Deutsche Bank Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 93% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 83% and FC Augsburg 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | FC Augsburg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG and FC Augsburg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.433 / defence 1.215 | FC Augsburg attack 0.579 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.310. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 29 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 13%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 90% | FC Augsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Apr 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 55% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 / FC Augsburg 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.433 / def 1.215 | FC Augsburg attack 0.579 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Augsburg xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 66% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.76
13%
7.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.15
0.92
FC Augsburg xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
7.66
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
11%
9.32
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
71.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.92 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 29 games, going 14W 11D 4L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.14 PPG from 29 outings (9W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 8W 6D 0L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.00 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 14W 11D 4L in their last 29 games (1.83 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FC Augsburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.14 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 93%, FC Augsburg at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 43% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 93% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 43% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG and FC Augsburg 0.92 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.43 / defence 1.22 against FC Augsburg attack 0.58 / defence 1.26, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 13%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 66%, FC Augsburg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.