Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 53%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Borussia-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record at Borussia-Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
SC Paderborn 07 arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% versus SC Paderborn 07 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | SC Paderborn 07 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.08 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.002 / defence 1.384 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.748 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.958 / away 1.349. Data: 41 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 7 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 26%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | SC Paderborn 07 3.85. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.08 / SC Paderborn 07 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.002 / def 1.384 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.748 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.958 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.40
SC Paderborn 07 xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 53% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.75x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
53%
1.88
21%
4.73
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.47
1.40
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
3%
31.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.40 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 11D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.71 PPG from 41 outings (20W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.56 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 11D 20L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 10D 11L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.20 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
0
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07?
From 1 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 45%, SC Paderborn 07 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 45%; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 30% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 45% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 8, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.08 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.40 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 2.1 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.00 / defence 1.38 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 26%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%, SC Paderborn 07 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.