Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Borussia Mönchengladbach take on FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FC Augsburg to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.57 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.71 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Bundesliga matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.57 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% versus FC Augsburg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 57% | FC Augsburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.23 xG and FC Augsburg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.863 / defence 0.946 | FC Augsburg attack 0.829 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.452. Data: 7 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 7 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 34% | Draw 36% | FC Augsburg 30%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | FC Augsburg 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% | FC Augsburg 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 34% | Draw 36% | FC Augsburg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.23 / FC Augsburg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.863 / def 0.946 | FC Augsburg attack 0.829 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 34% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
36%
2.80
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.37
1.14
FC Augsburg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.14 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 3W 2D 2L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg's form line: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.57 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 67%, FC Augsburg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 67% for FC Augsburg.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 33%; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 67% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 67% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.23 xG and FC Augsburg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against FC Augsburg attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 34% | Draw 36% | FC Augsburg 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 57%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.57 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.