Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bayer Leverkusen face Union Berlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Berlin make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 7W 2D 1L at BayArena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bayer Leverkusen's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bayer Leverkusen have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Union Berlin managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayer Leverkusen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 61% versus Union Berlin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 69% | Union Berlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.17 xG and Union Berlin 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.205 / defence 0.848 | Union Berlin attack 0.901 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.440. Data: 62 Bayer Leverkusen games / 62 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 61% | Draw 20% | Union Berlin 18%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Union Berlin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Union Berlin 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 61% | Draw 20% | Union Berlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.17 / Union Berlin 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.205 / def 0.848 | Union Berlin attack 0.901 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Union Berlin xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 61% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
Record (6 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 4W | Draws 2 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.90x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.90
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.27
1.10
Union Berlin xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
48.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.10 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 46W 14D 2L from 62 games, a 2.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 31L across 62 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 23W 6D 2L from 31 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 6W 6D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.97 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 46W 14D 2L in their last 62 games (2.45 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 18W 13D 31L in their last 62 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Union Berlin away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.42 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
1
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, Union Berlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 61%, Union Berlin 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Bayer Leverkusen and 45% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union Berlin in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 32% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 45% of Union Berlin's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bayer Leverkusen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin finished level at 0-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.17 xG and Union Berlin 1.10 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Union Berlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Union Berlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 61% | Draw 20% | Union Berlin 18%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 69%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.