1. FC Köln 0-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host SV Darmstadt 98 at Cologne Stadium in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Köln at Cologne Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
1. FC Köln are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 0 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 56% versus SV Darmstadt 98 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 43% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.699 / defence 1.160 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.721 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.367. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 1. FC Köln games / 29 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 40% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Cologne Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.50 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.699 / def 1.160 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.721 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Cologne Stadium.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Köln 0 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Cologne Stadium.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 44% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.70x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.45
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.64
1.14
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.14 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Köln come into this having played 63 games, going 14W 22D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.29 PPG from 63 outings (22W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.02 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Köln's home form reads 9W 8D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.24 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 14W 22D 27L in their last 63 games (1.02 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.13 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 52%, SV Darmstadt 98 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (1. FC Köln) and 55% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 42% of games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Köln 0-2 at Cologne Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.14 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.70 / defence 1.16 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.72 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 43%, SV Darmstadt 98 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.02 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.